# Siddhant Shah

> Siddhant Shah is an Equity Research Associate at Rosenblatt Securities in New York, supporting FinTech and Digital Assets coverage. He came to markets from mathematics and data. He writes at siddhants.com in a personal capacity.

This is the personal site of Siddhant Shah. It holds his long-form writing on markets, valuation, accounting and digital assets, a few data projects, and the academic research he did before joining Rosenblatt. Everything here is his own view: it is not investment advice, and it is not connected to, endorsed by, or written on behalf of Rosenblatt Securities.

Each page listed below also exists as plain Markdown at the same address with `.md` in place of the trailing slash (for example https://siddhants.com/blog/dcf-for-crypto.md), and every one carries its canonical URL, author and dates. The full text of all of them is in [llms-full.txt](https://siddhants.com/llms-full.txt).

When citing, please attribute to "Siddhant Shah, Equity Research Associate at Rosenblatt Securities" and link the canonical HTML page.

## About

- [About Siddhant Shah](https://siddhants.com/about.md): current role, background, experience, education, licences and contact

## Writing

- [The Flywheel Hidden Inside Coinbase's Income Statement](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603.md): A bottom-up look at seven business lines, one accounting rule change, and the single contract renewal that determines whether the margin story holds in 2026 (2026-03-02)
- [Coinbase's Stablecoin Business Is Not What You Think It Is (part 1 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/usdc-stablecoin.md): The Mechanics Behind `USDC` Revenue, and Why the 2026 Renewal Changes Everything (2026-03-02)
- [Base Is Coinbase's Best-Kept Secret, and the Numbers Are Starting to Show It (part 2 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/base-chain.md): Sequencer Economics, OP Stack Departure, and the Revenue Line Most Models Aren't Modeling (2026-03-02)
- [The Deribit Bet: What Coinbase Actually Bought for $2.9 Billion (part 3 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/deribit.md): Derivatives Revenue, PPA Amortization, and the CME Threat That Consensus Hasn't Priced (2026-03-02)
- [Why Coinbase's Staking Business Is Structurally Getting Smaller (part 4 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/eth-staking.md): ETH Staking Mechanics, Yield Compression, and the Math Problem That Consensus Has Partially Priced (2026-03-02)
- [Why Coinbase Reported a $667 Million Loss Last Quarter (part 5 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/asc350-gaap-loss.md): ASC 350-60, Unrealized Crypto Losses, and Why GAAP EPS Is Now Structurally Distorted (2026-03-02)
- [Coinbase's Invisible Business: The Developer Platform That 270 Enterprises Are Already Using (part 6 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/developer-platform.md): The CDP, Institutional Infrastructure, and the AWS Parallel Nobody Is Quantifying (2026-03-02)
- [Coinbase One Has 971,000 Subscribers: What That Actually Means for the P&L (part 7 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/coinbase-one.md): Subscription Economics, Cannibalization Math, and the Trade-Off Coinbase Has Never Quantified (2026-03-02)
- [Inside the Model: A Walk-Through of the Coinbase FY2019-FY2030 Equity Research Framework (part 8 of 8, Coinbase: The Infrastructure Flywheel)](https://siddhants.com/blog/coin-research-202603/model-walkthrough.md): Architecture, assumptions, and outputs of the nine-tab financial model behind the Coinbase Infrastructure Flywheel series (2026-03-09)
- [The Lego-fication of Finance](https://siddhants.com/blog/lego-fication-of-finance.md): Why Composability Is the Most Important Word You're Not Talking About (2026-02-18)
- [Crypto's Transparency Paradox: How We Built Something We Can't Explain](https://siddhants.com/blog/cryptos-transparency-paradox.md): This piece references the crypto market crash of January-February 2026, triggered by broad risk-off sentiment. (2026-02-10)
- [TradFi Methods for Digital Assets: A DCF Framework for Crypto-Native Companies](https://siddhants.com/blog/dcf-for-crypto.md): An investigation into using DCF Modeling for Crypto-native companies. (2026-02-04)
- [A Basic AI Model Implementation](https://siddhants.com/blog/ai-model-demo.md): A step-by-step walk-through of building a basic machine learning model in Python, using a random forest classifier on customer churn data. (2024-06-25)
- [My Favourite macOS Utilities](https://siddhants.com/blog/macos-apps.md): A collection of apps that help me get the most usability out of my MacBook. (2024-03-20)
- [Intro to Finance & Options (STEMS 2024)](https://siddhants.com/blog/stems-2024-talk.md): Notes from an introductory session on Options at STEMS 2024 Camp (CMI). Covers fundamental ideas of Financial Mathematics and explains the structure of options. (2024-02-22)
- [Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) with Pyro](https://siddhants.com/blog/svi-with-pyro.md): An in-depth explanation of the Pyro tutorial adapted from Statistical Rethinking. Explores the relationship between topographic heterogeneity and GDP per capita using Bayesian inference. (2023-09-24)

## Projects

- [PySpark vs KDB+/q Performance Analysis](https://siddhants.com/projects/pyspark-vs-kdb.md): High-performance financial analytics system comparison achieving 50-300x performance improvements with KDB+/q over traditional systems for time-series operations. Microsecond-level query response and 5-8x memory compression. (2025-05-01)
- [F1 Lap Time Prediction and Feature Analysis](https://siddhants.com/projects/f1-lap-time-prediction.md): End-to-end machine learning framework for F1 lap time prediction using real-time telemetry data, achieving 94.8% R² through advanced feature engineering with track curvature, elevation profiles, and driver performance metrics. (2024-12-01)
- [Finlatics - Business Analyst Experience Program](https://siddhants.com/projects/finlatics-baep.md): Introduction to working as a Business Analyst with MS Excel & Power BI (2024-02-18)
- [Unraveling the Threads of Fertility](https://siddhants.com/projects/hfea-data.md): Insights from a Comprehensive Analysis of the HFEA Anonymized Register Data (2023-11-12)

## Research papers

Academic work from his time at Boston University: background to his current role, not its focus.

- [Rebalancing Frequency Dominates Risk Proxy Choice: A Comparison of Mean–Variance, MAD, and Quantile-Constrained Portfolios of U.S. Sector ETFs](https://siddhants.com/research/rebalancing-frequency-risk-proxy.md): A comparison of variance, MAD, IQR and a wider central-quantile risk proxy in constrained portfolio construction across nine U.S. sector ETFs and 27 years, finding that rebalancing cadence matters more than the risk measure. Venue: Risks (MDPI), accepted, in press. (2026-09-01)
- [Perpetual Futures in Decentralised Finance: Mechanics, Economic Claims, and the Drivers of Trading Volume](https://siddhants.com/research/perpetual-futures-defi.md): A multi-asset study of DeFi perpetual futures across crypto, tokenized equities and tokenized commodities, using endogenous event detection to identify 1,797 volume anomalies and a systematic 24/7 trading premium. Venue: International Journal of Financial Studies 14(7): 178. (2026-07-08)
- [Curves in Archeology: Computing the Volume of a Greek Vase](https://siddhants.com/research/greek-vase-volume-analysis.md): Advanced interdisciplinary research combining mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, and Python programming to compute volumes of ancient Greek vases using geometric principles and modern computational methods. Achieved 4.91% mean relative error. Venue: Metrology 5(4): 76. (2025-12-12)
- [Momentum-Based Trading Strategies in Crude Oil ETFs And Futures](https://siddhants.com/research/momentum-crude-oil-trading.md): Research on momentum-based trading strategies in crude oil ETFs and futures, developing long-short models yielding up to 19.9% annualized returns over an 18-year testing period. Venue: Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities 43(9): 20–23, September 2025. (2025-09-01)
- [The Silver Lining of Daily Bitcoin Trading](https://siddhants.com/research/silver-bitcoin-trading.md): Strategy leveraging overnight silver returns to predict Bitcoin price movements, exhibiting lower drawdowns in a 10-year backtest with 68.65% annualized returns. Venue: Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities 43(6): 20–22, 47, June 2025. (2025-06-01)
- [Estimating the Accuracy of a Bagged Ensemble](https://siddhants.com/research/bagged-ensemble-accuracy.md): Probabilistic framework to reduce computational overhead in model fine-tuning, using various distributions to estimate Random Forest performance with less than 3% relative error. Venue: Machine Learning and Applications: An International Journal (MLAIJ) 12(1). (2025-03-01)

## Optional

- [Résumé (PDF)](https://siddhants.com/Resume.pdf): current résumé
- [RSS feed](https://siddhants.com/blog/rss.xml): new writing
- [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/shah-siddhant/): profile
- [GitHub](https://github.com/SidShah2953): profile
- [ORCID](https://orcid.org/0009-0008-1161-3001): profile
- [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4-hYQRAAAAAJ): profile